The 2025 Annual Homelessness Assessment Report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) shows a 3.3 percent drop in homelessness, the first national decline since 2016. But the reasons behind this drop are complex, and the reality on the ground is more subtle.
A Decline Driven by Specific Groups and States
The report reveals that homelessness among families with children fell by 11 percent. However, individuals and chronically homeless individuals saw an increase, reaching record highs of 515,286 and 155,750 respectively. These groups, primarily adult men, are the hardest to house and are often not reached by family-focused programs.
The decline is largely attributed to just two states: New York and Illinois, which accounted for 92 percent of the national drop. Both states had previously seen large increases in homelessness due to an influx of asylum seekers. The reduction is partly due to a decrease in new arrivals, linked to changes in federal immigration policy.
The Limitations of the Point-in-Time Count
The point-in-time count, conducted on a single January night, is a fragile measure. It can be influenced by factors like shelter bed availability and weather conditions. For instance, Utah’s count rose by 18.5 percent in 2025, primarily due to expanded winter shelter capacity.
The count also excludes those who are doubled up with family or friends and cannot capture the churn of people moving in and out of homelessness. HUD itself acknowledges that the actual number of unsheltered people may be larger than reported.
A mother in Salt Lake County, Utah, shared her experience, stating that the shelter felt like “just like jail except for you could have your kid.” She felt safe only when she received a rental subsidy, but when it ended, she returned to the shelter.
This story highlights the cyclical nature of homelessness for many families. In the same county, research found that nearly half of the 1,462 families studied returned to shelters, often after their aid ended. About a third of these families experienced multiple episodes of homelessness, averaging nearly three each.
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The point-in-time count may not capture these families, as they can be housed one month and back in a shelter the next. This churn is a critical aspect of the homelessness crisis, often overlooked in the annual tally.
The National Alliance to End Homelessness notes that while some people are helped out of homelessness, more are entering it, particularly as rents rise. This inflow of new homeless individuals outpaces the services available, leading to a growing crisis.
The Housing First approach, which prioritizes permanent housing without preconditions, has been criticized by HUD Secretary Scott Turner. However, the issue is not the model itself but the shortage of affordable homes and insufficient funding.
In New York City, the Coalition for the Homeless reports that 97 percent of the 190,000 new arrivals who left the shelter system since 2022 did so without relocation help. Their destinations remain largely unknown, and the city’s 30- and 60-day shelter limits may have pushed them into unstable situations.
The count’s limitations extend to those sleeping in cars or doubled up with others, who are not included in the official tally.
The Rio Grande Valley in South Texas highlights another uncounted group: support youth who become homeless at 18. Many of these young people double up with friends, falling through the cracks of the system.
Challenges in Counting the Unsheltered
The process of counting unsheltered individuals is divided into two parts. Volunteers first tally those in shelters, then search for people sleeping in cars, encampments, or on the street before dawn. Both stages are vulnerable to inaccuracies.
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The street count is particularly difficult, as volunteers cannot reach everyone. Those sleeping out of sight, often chronically homeless, are frequently missed. The tally can fluctuate due to factors like temperature, search routes, and the availability of services.
Research in Salt Lake County highlights how isolated and overlooked single adults can feel due to the scattered and hard-to-reach nature of services. This isolation contributes to the challenge of obtaining an accurate count of unsheltered individuals.
The Impact of Policy Changes and Local Efforts
The decline in homelessness is partly due to policy changes, particularly in New York and Illinois. New York attributed its drop in unaccompanied homeless youth to fewer asylum seekers entering the state.
Illinois also implemented short-term rental assistance and added new permanent housing units through federal and state funding. However, the primary driver of the decline was the decrease in asylum seekers, not an increase in housing solutions.
The Uncounted and the Challenges Ahead
The point-in-time count excludes those who are doubled up with family or friends, a common situation in places like Texas. Housing workers there report families crowding together to avoid homelessness, a trend that goes unrecorded.
In the Rio Grande Valley, support youth who become homeless at 18 often double up with friends, falling outside the count. These uncounted groups highlight the limitations of the current system and the need for a more inclusive approach to measuring homelessness.
